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A week has passed since Russia invaded Ukraine again and fell to Ukrainian forces, who have been fighting courageous resistance ever since. While the context of this invasion originated in the breakup of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, today, in the midst of bombings and shootings, Ukraine is already experiencing the significant humanitarian and geopolitical repercussions of this war.
“My home town of Chernihiv has suffered a lot. Alarms were heard every 30 minutes, and rockets hit historic homes and buildings. While the negotiations were taking place, rockets flew one after the other,” says Veronika Rybak, a former Ukrainian journalist and political commentator who has lived in Canada for three years, from Montreal. Large numbers of Ukrainian women and children hide in cellars and bomb shelters, while men organize and defend the country, managing to contain the overwhelming forces of the enemy. More than one million Ukrainians have fled their country. “The army and civilians are defending cities and repelling the occupiers, but additional military aid is needed,” adds Ms. Rybak.
What caused the 2013-2014 crisis?
In Ukraine, several witnesses are being interviewed who want the whole world to know: the war did not start last week, it started in 2014. Veronika Rybak also believes that, in order to understand this invasion, you have to look at the story a bit. “In 2013, the President of the Russian Federation could dictate his laws and rules on the territory of Ukraine,” explains the journalist. “At the time, the president of Ukraine was Viktor Yanukovich. He reported to Vladimir Putin every move he made. Yanukovich's party created a solid network of parties, where everything was managed from the top, even in the villages,” she tells us. “Then, when the opportunity presented itself to join the European Union (EU), obviously, Yanukovich refused, because his neighbor, Putin himself, did not want to. He did not want to be associated with an EU member,” Ms. Rybak.When President Yanukovich refused to join the EU in 2013, more than 80 people went to Maidan, in downtown Kyiv, to protest. They were brutalized there before being evicted from the premises.
It was from this incident that the Ukrainian revolution of 2013-2014, called Euromaidan, was born. The goals of this revolution subsequently evolved, aiming not only at EU membership, but also at the removal of the President of Ukraine. In a panic, Viktor Yanukovich fled to the Russian Federation, asking for Putin's protection, the political analyst explains to us. According to her, this situation led to a loss of control in the Kremlin. The Russian army moved to Sevastopol, in Crimea, which was then part of Ukrainian territory. Fearing obstacles, Putin held an illegal referendum in Crimea in order to bring the peninsula under Russian control. It was the first time since the Second World War that a European state annexed part of the territory of another European state. Demonstrations broke out in several cities in Ukraine. Nevertheless, Putin decided to send troops to the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, under the pretext of “helping Ukraine” — a military operation that has been going on for eight years now. Crimea is still under Russian control. “Ukraine is a buffer zone with Europe, and if Ukraine is not under Russian control, Russia will certainly become vulnerable to Europe”, summarizes Ms. Rybak.
Geopolitical aspects
Several experts say that, from a geopolitical point of view, the war between Ukraine and Russia was inevitable. It was only a matter of time before it was triggered. In his book The grand chessboard, the American political scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski analyzes the consequences of the collapse of the USSR, writes that the exit from Ukraine was the most painful event for Moscow. Over time, it became clear that the Kremlin would never put up with such a loss and would only wait for an opportunity to take over this country. During its three decades of independence, Ukraine has tried to chart its own course as a sovereign state, while seeking closer ties with the West, including the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). But the President of the Russian Federation sees NATO's eastward expansion as a threat to the territorial integrity of his country.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and Russia has repeatedly asked for a promise that Ukraine would never join. In 2014, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia turned into a battlefield in the Donbass region. According to statements by British military leaders and American investigators, a strengthening of Russian military forces along the border with Ukraine took place at the end of 2021. By then, it was already clear that Moscow was preparing for a large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russia's interests in Ukraine from a historical point of view
Roman Serbyn is professor emeritus of Russian and Eastern European history at the University of Quebec in Montreal and a specialist in Ukraine. He believes that Putin is continuing the policy of Joseph Stalin, former head of the Soviet state, namely the integration of Ukraine into the Russian state. “Stalin wanted to transform the Soviet Union into a Russian state. He suppressed the Ukrainian revival, there was the Holodomor (the Great Famine) in Ukraine, the destruction of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the intelligentsia,” the professor quotes. “When Ukraine was conquered by the Bolsheviks (the Russian army), it received the status of a Ukrainian socialist republic. This means that it did not become a state that established its own laws, but that it was subject to superior forces,” says Mr Serbyn.
He thinks Putin wants to rebuild the Soviet empire. “According to Putin's controversial essay On the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians, published on July 12, 2021, the Ukrainian language never existed, nor did the Ukrainian state,” explains the professor. “The essay shows that the objective of this war is the conquest of Kiev and a change of government that would gradually readjust Ukraine to the all-Russian nation,” he said. Mr. Serbyn considers that, if Ukraine maintains itself as a sovereign state, this weakens Russia. “Putin said that he wanted NATO to withdraw not only from Ukraine, but also from the republics that belonged to the Soviet Union,” he added. In short, the Ukraine specialist argues that Putin wants to abolish Ukraine as an independent state and a distinct ethnic group, and that if the Russian president succeeds in taking control of Ukraine, which has the largest area among the former Soviet republics, Russia will become more powerful. “After the integration of Ukraine, it will be easier to integrate other republics,” he argues. “And then, that changes the relationships at the geolevel. politics.”
What are Russia's goals in Ukraine?
Inga Kononenko, an analyst on international human rights institutions and policies, worked for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) during the parliamentary and presidential elections in Ukraine. She believes that, according to the current Kremlin discourse, the very existence of Ukraine as an independent state is unthinkable. “In their logic, Ukraine can only exist as a colony of Russia. Vladimir Putin has made it clear that he would never allow Ukraine to become “anti-Russian” and that he would continue to oppose the expansion of Western influence in Ukraine,” says Ms. Kononenko. She notes that, as Ukraine progresses and develops its own identity and a modern perception of itself, Russia is seeking to resume a role by mixing different ideologies, including the Soviet ideology of the 20th century. The human rights specialist considers that by occupying Crimea, Russia has strengthened its control over the Black Sea by establishing a larger and more modern military presence on the peninsula.
Western sanctions
On Wednesday evening, across the Atlantic, we spoke to Andriy Titok, a journalist who covers military issues for the National Public Broadcasting Company of Ukraine (UA:PBC). He reports that the Russian occupying forces are violating international humanitarian law by looting and killing local populations. “The morality of the occupying army is extremely weak,” he told us over the phone from the city of Chernihiv. He notes that the United States and its allies have taken retaliatory measures against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, but believes that this is not enough. “We all understand that, if they are actively involved in this conflict, there will be a global war. But Ukraine really needs military aid today,” he declares.He notes that eight years ago, when it was clear that Russia had invaded Ukraine, annexed Crimea and started a war in the Donbass region, the international community had been too accommodating to Vladimir Putin.
“Canadian, American, and European politicians tried to please Putin. But we all know the lessons to be learned from 1938-1939, when Europeans also flattered the aggressor Hitler,” argues the journalist specializing in military issues. Titok is of the opinion that the recent sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries should have come sooner. Professor Roman Serbyn agrees, believing that these sanctions should have been taken at the start of the invasion, in 2014. On February 26, Canada, the United States, the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union Have decided to block the access of certain Russian banks to the SWIFT global payment system in order to undermine Russia's economy and finances. But according to Mr. Serbyn, this measure is insufficient and will take too long to have an effect. “It will take weeks before the SWIFT system is deactivated, and in the meantime, Ukrainians will be killed or be occupied,” says the professor. “Ukraine did not ask Americans and Canadians to go to war for Ukraine. She asked for military aid and weapons. There, the army is progressing with weapons, but they [Western leaders] are talking about “sanctions.” Putin is going to continue to attack, and we are going to apply sanctions and empty their embassies. Isn't that an incentive for Putin? ” Mr. Serbyn continues. On 27 February 2022, NATO reported that Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Estonia, France, France, France, France, France, France, France, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, France, France, France, France, France, France, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Greece, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Great Britain and the United States had already sent or were in the process of approving major deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine, as well as several millions of dollars, while other member countries would provide humanitarian aid by hosting refugees.
What does the future hold for us?
The speakers interviewed for this report say that as Ukraine pressed for membership in NATO and the EU, it asserted its sovereignty and forged a modern image. However, tensions have intensified, especially since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and took control of Donetsk and Luhansk, regions in south-eastern Ukraine.Andriy Titok, a journalist in Ukraine, is calling on Canadians to pressure Canadians to pressure their governments to establish a second front and put pressure on the Kremlin.Veronika Rybak wants the world to understand that Ukraine is defending its territorial integrity and that this prevents the Kremlin from invading other European countries. “The world must not stay silent, she declares. It's probably the only thing that can stop Russia. Every small gesture we do for Ukraine is a drop that forms a vast ocean of aid.”
“A ceasefire is always a good idea,” says Inga Kononenko. But the problem is that Russia has taken the first steps, and it is clear that it wants to save time.” “Another problem for Ukraine is that Belarus has officially entered the war,” adds the analyst. With their referendum, they have the power to support Russia.” And on the side of Ukraine? “The fact that she has shown her willingness to participate in negotiations allows her to wait longer on the international front and to push for measures such as the flight ban; something that has still not been done and is really necessary to counter what we are witnessing today in Ukrainian cities”, she concludes.
What are the speeches conveyed by the Kremlin?
Russia has repeatedly affirmed that it launched its military intervention in order to protect, “demilitarize and denazify Ukraine”. “The aim of this operation is to protect people who, for the past eight years, have been victims of intimidation and genocide by the Kiev regime”, said Vladimir Putin during a televised speech. On 1 March 2022, the Russian Embassy in Canada issued a statement along the same lines. She claims that crimes against humanity and violations of international humanitarian law are committed by neo-Nazi groups such as the Azov Regiment and the Right Sector party. “The Russian army is not fighting Ukraine or Ukrainians. The tasks of ridding Ukraine of Nazism and demilitarizing it will be completed,” the statement reads. Many say they are perplexed by the idea that Putin wants to denazify Ukraine, a country whose president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is Jewish. Does that mean Russia wants to protect Jews, Roma, foreign students, and LGBTQ communities living in Ukraine? In the next part of our dossier on Ukraine, we will go further into this issue.